Start with a matchup to understand the teams. Explore Players for individual performance, then use Projections to compare possible outcomes. Save research you want to revisit.
Terms, in plain language
Moneyline
A bet on which team wins. Settlement rules can differ by sport and market, including whether overtime counts.
Spread
A points or runs handicap. A team at −3.5 needs to win by more than 3.5; a team at +3.5 can lose by up to 3 and still cover.
Total / over / under
A line for combined scoring or a player statistic. Over means above the line; under means below it. An exact tie can be a push, depending on the market.
American odds
+150 means $100 staked would profit $150 if it wins. −150 means $150 staked would profit $100. The original stake is returned too; these are payout examples, not stake suggestions.
Player prop
A market on one player’s performance, such as passing yards, shots on goal, hits or rebounds.
Workload / opportunity
How much a player gets to participate: carries, targets, plate appearances or minutes. More opportunity can create more chances, but efficiency and the opponent also matter.
Hit rate / sample
How often a result cleared a line in the games selected. 7 of 10 is a 70% historical hit rate, not a forecast. Small or heavily filtered samples can be misleading.
Head to head (H2H)
Past games against the same opponent. Rosters, roles and conditions change, so these games may not describe the current matchup.
Projection range
A range of possible outcomes around an estimate. An 80% model range aims to contain 80% of outcomes if the model is well calibrated. It is not a guarantee.
Fair odds / expected value (EV)
Fair odds express a model’s estimated probability without a bookmaker margin. EV compares that estimate with a specific price. Positive estimated EV can still lose, and depends on the model being reliable.
Vig / no-vig probability
Vig is the margin built into a book’s prices. Removing it gives a market comparison that still is not a guarantee of the true probability.
Calibration
Whether events forecast at a given probability happen about that often over many comparable cases. A few winning picks cannot establish it.
Total bases (TB)
Bases credited from hits: single = 1, double = 2, triple = 3, home run = 4. Walks and stolen bases do not count.
Plate appearances (PA) / at-bats (AB)
PA counts completed trips to the plate. AB excludes outcomes such as walks and sacrifice flies. Check the denominator when comparing batting statistics.
Targets / receptions
A target is a pass intended for a receiver. A reception is a completed catch. Target volume describes opportunity; receptions describe a result.
Shots on goal / power play
Shots on goal are shots that score or require a goalie save. A power play is a temporary player advantage after a penalty. Power-play time can change scoring opportunity.